- Monday, 06 August 2018
- Weekly Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 6 August - 10 August
The American dollar closed the week on a strong note, as mixed employment figures weren't enough to interrupt its rally, neither risk aversion related to escalating tensions between the US and China, or the recovery in US equities. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1559 to close the week not far above the level, and nearing its yearly low of 1.1507 as a week in where multiple central banks announced their latest decisions on monetary policy it was evident that the Fed is alone in the path to normalization. As for US employment data, the economy added 157K new jobs in July, below the market's expectations, although June figure was upwardly revised to 248K from 213K. The unemployment rate fell as expected to 3.9% with the participation rate holding steady at 62.9%, while wages' growth matched market's forecast with a 0.3% advance MoM and up by 2.7% YoY. Far from an impressive report, but enough to confirm Fed's view of a "strong" raise in economic activity.
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- Monday, 06 August 2018
- Weekly Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 6 August - 10 August
The GBP/USD pair closed at the 1.3000 figure, down for a fourth consecutive week, as broad dollar's strength coupled with tepid UK data. The Markit Services PMI for July came in at 53.5 vs. the expected 54.7, the lowest in three months. The pair came under strong selling pressure on Thursday, as despite the BOE rose rates by 25pb as expected, Governor Mark Carney warned about the effects on a no-Brexit deal, referring to chances of that happening as "uncomfortably high" at the moment. The lack of progress in Brexit negotiations is what keeps the Pound away from speculators' radar these days. Talks between the UK and the EU will resume next week.
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- Monday, 06 August 2018
- Weekly Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 6 August - 10 August
And there goes the AUD/USD pair to close a seventh consecutive week at around 0.7400. The constant bombarding of trade war headlines opposes to dominant dollar's strength, leaving the pair directionless. There was a brief hope for bears early Friday, but China came to change it all after the PBoC adjusted the reserve requirement on FX forwards trading to 20% effective August 6th, sending the pair from a 2-week low of 0.7347 back to its current comfort zone.
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- Saturday, 28 July 2018
- Weekly Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 July - 3 August
An uneventfully ECB meeting put the common currency under pressure this week, with the EUR/USD pair finishing it in the red, but still within familiar levels, at around 1.1660. The European Central Bank left rates and the QE unchanged, as largely expected, while no relevant changes were made to the usual statement. However, within Draghi's press conference, he was asked about the actual meaning of "through the summer of 2019," in regards to how long with rates remain at record lows, and he clarified that no action should be expected at least until September 2019. Odds of a hike then are now at 57%.
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